The situation 1407 – January 27, 2026

1. The United States is reportedly pushing Ukraine to cede the remainder of Donetsk Oblast to Russia in exchange for US security guarantees. ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian concessions of territory that Russia is unlikely to seize quickly or easily militarily would be a strategic mistake.
2. The Russian military command continues to present demonstrable lies and exaggerations about Russian battlefield gains in order to push Ukraine and the West to concede to the demands that Russia remains unable to achieve militarily.
3. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has been lying about the scale of Russian advances for months, provoking repeated criticisms from even pro-war Russian milbloggers.
4. The Russian military command has been boasting about the seizure of small, rural villages and presenting these seizures as alleged evidence of the prowess of the Russian military to further the false narrative that Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable.
5. Russian officials continue to indicate that Russia’s demands go beyond control of territory in eastern Ukraine, despite the Kremlin’s efforts to claim to Western audiences that Donbas is the main issue in ongoing peace talks.
6. Russia will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that does not meet all of its demands and is instead using informational tools to push for Ukraine’s pre-emptive capitulation.
7. Russian forces conducted a Shahed drone strike against a civilian passenger train in Kharkiv Oblast on January 27, killing at least five people.
8. Russian forces continue to commit war crimes on the battlefield, including in areas where Russian forces have recently intensified offensive operations.
9. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and near Pokrovsk.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1407 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.